# Analyzing Secular Cycles Using the theories of historical change developed by [[Peter Turchin]] in [[War and Peace and War]], can we analyze countries across the world and describe where they are in the secular cycle. ## The United States Secular Cycle Is it possible that the US is going through a disintegrative phase? The US of today bears similarities to the two disintegrative phases of the Roman Republic and the Roman principate, respectively. As I was reading about those two disintegrative phases I was reminded of today by: - the level of inequality - The political bipolarity between elitism and nationalism/protectionism. - The rise of very famous writers/thinkers/orators at the start of these phases. Such as Cicero during republic, and Marcus Aurelius during principate. ## Countries with interesting Secular Cycles Where could asabyia be developing strongly? What countries sit at metaethnic frontiers? - Saudi Arabia. - Japan - India ## Footprints of secular cycles Cicero and Marcus Aurelius both "occurred" at similar times of the secular cycle. Is it possible that human endevours, or works of knowledge, art and science occur as a result of the pressures and opportunities presented by the cycle? There was an argument for this in [[The Fourth Turning]] E.g. at the top of the secular cycle there are a lot of elites, higher demand for learning and also a higher production of material. It could be related to Maslows hierarchy. Elites had all of their needs fulfilled and were searching for self-actualization. How would this integrate with [[Spiral Dynamics Integral]]