# On the Possibility of Nuclear War This is not specifically about the immediate future but potentially about the next great conflict with the risk of life/death for major nuclear powers. Richard Haass wrote in his new book [[The World - A Brief Introduction]] about the reasons why the [[Cold War between the Soviet Union and the US]] never went hot was because there was an understanding of mutual destruction. Concerning the dropping of the [[Nuclear Bombs]], you could argue that [[President Truman]] probably didn't need to drop the bombs given that it occurred after the US surrendered and it was days after Russia agreed to join the war against Japan. I wonder whether [[President FDR]] would have made that decision, and the personality portrayed in the documentary [[The Untold Story of the United States]] doesn't paint [[President Truman]] in a very honorable or strong light. In the documentary they describe him as the favoured choice by the democratic party at the time and used him to oust the previous [[Vice President Wallace]]. The point here being that the institutional memory of the impact of those weapons has worn off. There are likely not many people around to really understand the impact it has had, except perhaps in Japan. On top of that it was known that these bombs would be incredibly destructive yet they were still dropped when it seemed that the war was almost won. (Perhaps that wasn't the impression at the time) but it certainly seems that way in hindsight. We now have a large number of leaders who are nationalistic, authoritarian and heavy handed. We also have a proliferation of nuclear weapons with post-Cold War Era arms agreements seemingly being reconsidered. More arsenal in more and heavier hands is a recipe for a disaster. It doesn't necessarily have to be all out nuclear. Could it be possible that pakistan launches a small nuclear weapon vs India? My impression is that nuclear war is almost an impossibilty for most people because intuitively it should be some sort of end of the world scenario. I did feel that way too and that was the mentality during the cold war. But lets consider two things: - I think I have already shown that we can't rely on leaders to show restraint (if you take the stories about [[President Truman]] at face value); - What if nuclear war would not directly impact most people? What if it was isolated to an area of the world? The total deaths in Hiroshima was around 66k, the total deaths in Nagasaki was around 39k according to one estimate. A nuclear war between for example North and South Korea, or Pakistan and India could be possible and would not directly effect most people in the world. Although the impact on global climate, food production and temperature would most likely effect everyone. There are ~13000 nuclear warheads in the world. check out the SIPRI yearbook on nuclear forces. https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/YB20 10 WNF.pdf ### stocks to look at: - Rheinmetall [[Investment Ideas]] ### Helpful resources. - https://www.sciencealert.com/watch-how-far-away-would-you-need-to-be-to-survive-a-nuclear-blast - https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/israel-possesses-90-nuclear-warheads-sipri - https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/YB20 10 WNF.pdf