I recently had an experience where I was unsure what to do about energy position in the short term. I didn't know whether to add to an attractive long-term picture or wait. I had no model to help in the short term and felt uncertain & helpless.
After receiving an email on the short-term implications of chinese buyers & OPEC meeting I had a realization. In the past I would always check oil & gas websites to see what was happening. But this time I never even looked for information about what was happening in the market. I forgot to even check for information that I could use to get a handle on the situation. I should assume there is information out there that can help.
So what lessons do I take away from this
- If you have questions look for answers. Stay curious and have a beginners mind.
- Have a process for staying up to date on the information that matters.
- Always continue to understand what the players & game master are doing.
- Think through their strategy ahead of time and don't be reactive.
- Prefer models to interpret the data but don't be afraid to use intuition.